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Thread: Brexit

  1. #1
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    Creature Brexit

    Can't believe we don't have a Brexit thread.

    Well, if it goes ahead we'll be out of the EU at the end of the month so now's just as good a time to start a thread.

    Can anyone explain what happened today in Parliament? What has Oliver Letwin done?

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  2. #2
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    Default Re: Brexit

    Well, the first thing is that if the deal is approved and implemented, although we will have left the EU in name, effectively we will still be aligned to the EU via the withdrawal agreement's "transition period". This lasts until the end of December 2020, by which time hopefully an agreement on the future trading relationship with the EU will have been put in place, although on past records this is unlikely. Until then we will still be able to travel and have the advantage of (or disadvantage, depending on your point of view) of trading arrangements such as the single market and tariff-free trade with the rest of the EU, no roaming charges, free movement etc.

    What has happened today is that parliament met on a Saturday for the first time since 1982 in order to debate and vote on the new deal. If the deal had been ratified the next step would be to put into law, which may take a bit of time and it would be good going to get it all done by Halloween. If it had been defeated then the PM would have been compelled to ask the EU for an extension to Brexit deadline, although for what reason is not certain (e. g. it would have to be for something tangible such as an election or referendum).

    However, the vote on the deal was circumvented by the Letwin amendment, which delayed the vote on the deal because if they had approved the deal this would have got the PM out of having to apply for an extension, and then we could have fallen out of the EU on 31st October by default due to lack of time or some sort of subterfuge by the PM. As this amendment was passed, there will now not be a vote on the deal (although they may have one early next week) so, crucially, Boris has to ask the EU for an extension, although is unclear as to whether he would have to accept one if one is offered.

    So, we're still not clear on what will happen and it carries on into next week at the very least.

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  3. #3
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    Palestinian Territory

    Default Re: Brexit

    It's a fucking ongoing mess!

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    Orbis non sufficit




    13 medium - Brexit




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  4. #4
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    Default Re: Brexit

    So even if we 'leave' at the end of the month, nothing will change for two years?

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  5. #5
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    Default Re: Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Earl View Post
    So even if we 'leave' at the end of the month, nothing will change for two years?
    Depends on how we leave. If it's a "no deal" then things will change very drastically. If the deal is agreed nothing much will change for up to 14 months.

    The way I see it is there is one of two outcomes:

    1) We leave without a deal or end up without a deal as even if the withdrawal agreement is passed, we still have to agree the ongoing relationship, and that will take longer than 14 months I reckon.

    2) We leave but with a deal and with a softer Brexit, i. e. we stay in the either the Customs Union, the Single Market, or both. This is less likely unless we get a change of government within the next few months.

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  6. #6
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    Default Re: Brexit

    is it possible at least next year

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  7. #7
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    Default Re: Brexit

    It's looking likely for next year as the predictions are for a Conservative majority in parliament.

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  8. #8
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    Default Re: Brexit

    So, it’s been a grim night so far in the elction for those who don’t want a hard Brexit and who don’t want Johnson’s brand of Conservatism. Labour have boobed massively and are haemorrhaging seats in the north of England, and probably won’t have any in Scotland, which used to be their heartlands. Jo Swinson, leader of the Lib Dems, has lost her seat in East Dunbartonshire. People in formerly traditionally Liberal areas like the south west of England are voting Tory.

    The upshot of this is that Johnson should have a majority of about 80-90 seats, enough to ratify the exit agreement with the EU and start negotiations for an ongoing trade agreement with the EU, which has to be done by the end of 2020. If he can’t achieve that, we’re back to a no-deal scenario and it’s deja vu all over again.

    Brexit aside, and I understand that some really want this, I seriously cannot see why people in some of the most deprived areas of the UK will be better off with the Tories. And to blame their predicament on the EU is ludicrous. But this has been pointed out to them time and again and they have still gone and done it, so that’s it.

    The problem I have with is that I think the UK as a nation is finished. The SNP have run away with it in Scotland and claimed some spectacular scalps, in particular the aforementioned Swinson. The next step is a 2nd independence referendum and I would be very surprised if that turns out with the same result as the last one. On top of this Johnson has sold out the Northern Irish, and a border down the Irish Sea, albeit just a customs one, could be the first nail in the coffin for that union.

    Only Wales, I think, will stick with England long-term. But the country I once loved is dead and buried. RIP United Kingdom.

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