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Thread: Brexit

  1. #1
    Dangerous Dilettante
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    Creature Brexit

    Can't believe we don't have a Brexit thread.

    Well, if it goes ahead we'll be out of the EU at the end of the month so now's just as good a time to start a thread.

    Can anyone explain what happened today in Parliament? What has Oliver Letwin done?

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  2. #2
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    Default Re: Brexit

    Well, the first thing is that if the deal is approved and implemented, although we will have left the EU in name, effectively we will still be aligned to the EU via the withdrawal agreement's "transition period". This lasts until the end of December 2020, by which time hopefully an agreement on the future trading relationship with the EU will have been put in place, although on past records this is unlikely. Until then we will still be able to travel and have the advantage of (or disadvantage, depending on your point of view) of trading arrangements such as the single market and tariff-free trade with the rest of the EU, no roaming charges, free movement etc.

    What has happened today is that parliament met on a Saturday for the first time since 1982 in order to debate and vote on the new deal. If the deal had been ratified the next step would be to put into law, which may take a bit of time and it would be good going to get it all done by Halloween. If it had been defeated then the PM would have been compelled to ask the EU for an extension to Brexit deadline, although for what reason is not certain (e. g. it would have to be for something tangible such as an election or referendum).

    However, the vote on the deal was circumvented by the Letwin amendment, which delayed the vote on the deal because if they had approved the deal this would have got the PM out of having to apply for an extension, and then we could have fallen out of the EU on 31st October by default due to lack of time or some sort of subterfuge by the PM. As this amendment was passed, there will now not be a vote on the deal (although they may have one early next week) so, crucially, Boris has to ask the EU for an extension, although is unclear as to whether he would have to accept one if one is offered.

    So, we're still not clear on what will happen and it carries on into next week at the very least.

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  3. #3
    The Unseen Hero
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    Palestinian Territory

    Default Re: Brexit

    It's a fucking ongoing mess!

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    Orbis non sufficit




    13 medium - Brexit




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  4. #4
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    Default Re: Brexit

    So even if we 'leave' at the end of the month, nothing will change for two years?

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  5. #5
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    Default Re: Brexit

    Quote Originally Posted by Earl View Post
    So even if we 'leave' at the end of the month, nothing will change for two years?
    Depends on how we leave. If it's a "no deal" then things will change very drastically. If the deal is agreed nothing much will change for up to 14 months.

    The way I see it is there is one of two outcomes:

    1) We leave without a deal or end up without a deal as even if the withdrawal agreement is passed, we still have to agree the ongoing relationship, and that will take longer than 14 months I reckon.

    2) We leave but with a deal and with a softer Brexit, i. e. we stay in the either the Customs Union, the Single Market, or both. This is less likely unless we get a change of government within the next few months.

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